Situation Normal – Despair has set in.
I wake up early every morning here. About 5:30, the light starts appearing and the birds singing. I was busy yesterday, but today I have NOTHING to do. Elena had some errands to run so I tagged along. These ran from 10:00 AM to 8:00 PM. We went to the market, to the auto repair, to a bakery, to another REAL bakery with bagels and donuts, to the supermarket, to a 'buffet' for lunch (fried chicken), to a cheese place, to the FARM, to the hair salon, and back here to the Center. Along the way Elena quizzed me on the various sites, and I was trying to teach this Italian child some of her native tongue! It messes with my brain to do both Spanish and Italian. I hope the Italian hangs around in there! What IS the word for traffic light again? I had to look it up because it is the SAME WORD! No wonder I couldn’t find it in my brain. Semáforo – the pronunciation is the same, but it has an accent in Spanish to get there!
When I woke this morning, I was thinking about this whole adventure. I’ve been reading a lot of stuff – Economics, The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin, The Economics of Poverty, and stuff from the Economist and New York Times. I have other blog entries in progress on those ideas – but it gets depressing! And today is election day! The problems are so immense, and our understanding of them is miniscule – and the general public knows NADA! It appears hopeless at 5:00 in the morning. Now I am sitting here on the porch, trying to ward off the no-see-ums with a little breeze, to read and think, and have a cup of tea.
I asked Elena yesterday in the course of our adventures what she loves about this country. I said: “Is it the heat, the bugs, the poverty, the corruption, the politics, the rain, the litter – why exactly do you live here?” And she said, as I knew she would, “It’s the people”. They are frustrating at times, they are crooked at times, they are crazy at times – but they are also wonderful. And the children are well loved – you can see it in their eyes. And the country is beautiful for the most part. It is green, green, green. Of course that changes a bit in the “summer”, the dry season, which, hopefully, has just started. We have had enough rain, thank you, thank you very much.
The good thing about all of this – there has to be a GOOD THING, right – is that almost none of these things I am reading have hit on the culture thing, the ‘way of thinking’ as part of the problem. They understand some of the mechanics, they are saving babies, and trying to push up stream, but they haven’t found this key idea yet. A few have seen it, and don’t agree with it – like Jeffrey Sachs. As my wife would say, we need more stories. By the way, Ned is collecting Masaai stories. I think that will be an invaluable resource some day. I have another blog started on that!
Elections
Back to the elections. This is from the local Sunday paper (I miss the comics!):
• 4,341,935 Registered voters – about 20% live outside the country, or are deceased.
• 3,500,000 Actual voters.
• 4,296 Polling places – that works out to 815 voters per location!
• 12,960 Poll helpers – about 3 per spot.
• 50%?? Expected turnout! .
Mechanics of the Election
All of the ballots are paper, and each voter MUST have a cedula – an identity card. There have been a lot of reports in the press about problems with this card. Any area that appears to be unfavorable to the government has had great difficulty getting cards. When you vote, your thumb is marked with indelible ink so you cannot vote a second time. All of the ballots are counted by hand, at the polling place. Then they are sealed up and transported under guard to the central coliseum here in Managua, where they are guarded by the police until matters are settled. The distribution of the ballots is also a police affair.
An oddity of the ballot is that all of the representatives for the National Assembly are also selected by the one vote for the party. The candidates are selected by the party and lined up under the presidential candidate, in a priority order. The seats are then distributed across the country based on the percentage of the vote the party gets, from the top down on the candidate list. Interesting approach. One would say that this is barely a democracy – more a party driven process. Of course, one could say the same for every democracy on the planet. In the US one can generally vote across party lines, but the public has little impact on selecting the candidates. There is a movement about to directly nominate the US president. If you have not heard of it, check it out: http://www.americanselect.org/. An interesting part of this approach is a nationwide poll to determine what the entire US public thinks about the key issues. Take the poll – it’s a real learning experience. I was in the majority when I took it, much to my utter amazement.
Voter Participation
In 1984, Ortega won with 50% of the vote, immediately after the revolution. I don’t know what the voter turnout was, or the other candidates, but it was the first real election after the 70 years of Somoza’s dictatorship. Voter participation has been falling since: 86% in 1990, 76% in 1996, 73% in 2001 and 67% in 2006. Ortega won the last election with 38% of the vote. To avoid a runoff election, Ortega needs 40% of the vote, or 35% and at least a 5 point lead over the nearest opponent. This law was changed from the percentage only rule just prior to the last election – which is why Ortega won that one. The latest polls have him winning this one with just over 40% of the vote. As the paper says, one way or another.
Divided Opposition
If the opposition were to get together, he would probably lose. The people I talk with are simply not voting. One protest group asked people to mark ALL of the candidates, to indicate they want “none of the above”. It is uncertain whether those ballots would even be counted. The issue is that people do not feel there really is any choice. Ortega controls the courts and the electoral commission. He had the Supreme Court declare unconstitutional the clause in the constitution that said the president could not hold two successive terms. He also had the Court declare invalid the conviction of his leading opponent, Alleman. This past president was convicted of stealing millions from the country. The next candidate is a media personality. The final 2 of the 5 have polled less than 1 percent of the vote to this point. If the opposition were not split by the formerly convicted felon, Ortega would likely not win. So your choice is an illegal candidate who is manipulating the courts, a convicted felon who promises to create a million jobs, or an 80 year old news guy who was exiled during Ortega’s very first term for opposing the government.
Electoral Silence
The law here bans ANY electoral activity from Thursday before the election. Isn't that a good idea! I would vote for a month of it, given that the US elections seem to last for 2 years. The day after the election is a National Holiday as well, with no alcohol served all weekend. They are trying to avoid problems. The police are prepared for considerable protests, given the state of affairs.
The National Archbishop celebrated Mass for the Ortegas just before the election, blessing them and praising their work on behalf of the poor. This Mass also ran all yesterday evening on the news channel. Another interesting approach. I suspect he will not get into any trouble with the authorities for that!
Ortega also supports a total ban on abortion – even therapeutic abortion where the mother’s life is at risk – a position he adopted just before the 2006 election. The clergy have been preaching about qualified candidates for months, emphasizing honesty, and support for the abortion ban.
Venezuelan Connection
Ortega has about $700 million a year coming into the country from his friend in Venezuela, who also appears to be headed toward “president for life”, assuming he lives a few more years. Ortega is also a rich man these days. Lots of convenient properties came his way and to his supporters and family during the last few years. The Venezuelan money comes via ALBA, which has no transparent reporting as to ownership and beneficiaries. But it is well known that faithful supporters are reaping the major benefits.
The local paper this morning reports “small disturbances” in parts of the country over the election. Apparently, the ballot is not sufficient. Some of the parties are trying to settle the matter with fists. It feels more like a sporting event than an election. There were caravans of supporters, banners, songs, etc. It is very much a win / lose competition. My team, right or wrong. It's about team membership, not decision making.
There are international observers here, but the two national papers predict that Ortega, the Sandinista Front, will win by a landslide – whatever it takes, legal or otherwise.
Power Corrupts
The scary thing is that democracy of this model - a strong leader - is the norm in most of the world. Once installed, people want that strong leader to stay. They HAVE to be the leader, to save the country, to move forward, to get rid of the problems, and the opposition. I was here when Chavez won his mandate. Everyone here was supportive and excited. And then the assembly gave him 18 months of unlimited power. I was thinking, that's a really dumb idea. But my friend, an educated MD, was of the opinion that this was quite normal - almost a necessity in order to bring about radical change. I think the whole Arab Spring is likely to end up in the same model. We are genetically tuned to love strong leaders. Our ancestors who liked the committee approach and weak leaders tended to not survive the wars!!
So you see why I am a bit disheartened. What would it take to change this? What would give rise to the kind of national empowerment that led to the revolution against Somoza? Well, we do what we can, one step at a time. Qui va piano, va lontano. (Italian) Another 50 to 100 years? What do you think?
Enough about that. The breeze is good, the bugs are just a bit annoying. Time for another cup of tea. Take care. Give everyone a hug for me!
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