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Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Gun Control - or NOT!

Gun Control - or NOT!
Along with the rest of the nation, I have been reading quite a bit about gun control of late. There is something about young children being shot in their school that hits home with all of us. This piece is a summary of some of that reading, with links to the better pieces I have found, and a reflection, based on my very small exposure to culture in other countries. It starts with this brief summary, which is then elucidated in the larger piece. I present it this way because, you know, most of us do not read much! If the summary makes sense, check out the details below.

Summary

  • The culture of the US is very different from other countries - for good or ill. We are a violent culture from our history and our values.
  • Other nations have far less violence for very complicated reasons.
  • Some nations have far more crime and corruption than the US, and some of those countries have adapted to their local conditions with practical solutions that work.
  • The arguments for gun control are excellent - here are a few summaries.
  • Gun control in the US is not something amenable to rational discussion and political action, and gun control efforts will not succeed in current culture and climate.
  • We need to recognize and accept our own culture as it is, and deal with the issue in a more blunt fashion. 
  • For a modest investment, we could place a highly trained police officer at the entrance door to every school building in the country. There are arguments against this - but my gut says that this would be very popular with the NRA and those who will resist every other rational step. And it would at least make school shootings much more difficult.

US Culture is very different
If you have not lived outside of the US, you may not realize that people do not think and operate the same around the world. This "world view" or "way of thinking" is often called their "culture". And that culture only changes very slowly. Good research indicates that the prevailing attitude toward guns and violence in the US goes way back to our founding nations. Some portions of our federation have roots in individualism and violence that are persist to today. If you have read Hillbilly Elegy, or 11 Nations of America, you will have read stories of past and present violent behavior that you probably found quite amazing. It is not an unusual in many parts of our country for people to use a gun as their first option to settle a dispute. It is quite common for southern "gentlemen" to become physically enraged by a mere insult. See this piece. It's just one example of the extensive research on our nation psyche.

American Violence
We are a nation born in violence, and reared in more violence. Our original settlers were either   highborn religious fanatics, or the dregs of society - depending. The various parts of the country hated each other, and regularly attacked, killed and maimed each other. That is a simple fact of history. Here's a bit of a thoughtful piece on that history. It is not going to change easily. This is another article from the Smithsonian on this violent history.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-shocking-savagery-of-americas-early-history-22739301/
Violence is not seen as a problem by many of our citizens, but rather as the way to solve problems - and guns are the most likely tool to further that resolution. We wiped out the native population, imported slave labor, used vigilante justice to settle disputes in all parts of the country, used violence to solve our labor problems, and our segregation issues. We hang people we do not like, we blow up their churches and buildings. We are our own best terrorists. It would be a worthwhile undertaking to change that, but it is not going away in any hurry.
https://newrepublic.com/article/143361/america-always-angry-violent

Problems and Approaches in Other Cultures
I know that there are cultures that are probably as violent or more so than the U.S. But I would like to draw your attention to a slightly different problem faced by other cultures, that we do not seem to have. But they have recognized the problem, and have taken steps to manage it.

Italy and Money
I had the good fortune to live in Italy for a number of years. I love Italians - but there are clearly things that I would not want to replicate. In every bank in Italy, only one person in the entire bank handles any funds - the cashier. Everyone else does the numbers, and gives you a slip of paper, which you then carry to the cashier. The cashier takes your slip, exchanges the funds, and makes a record of the transaction. At the end of the day, all of those accounts had better balance or someone is in deep trouble.
If you go to the post office in Italy, the clerk only has a limited number of stamps, and a limited amount of cash. The supervisor in the rear manages all of the inventory of stamps, and doles out the cash to the different clerks. At the end of the day, those accounts must balance.
If you go into a bar in Rome to get a drink or something to eat, you present your request to the cashier at the back of the room, and he / she gives you a receipt, which you then present to the barrista to obtain your product. At the end of the day, those slips of paper must balance.
Italians are nice people, but, at least from Rome south, they are fundamentally dishonest. They will steal anything not nailed down - so everything has to be nailed down. That is simply a fact of life. They have adapted to it or there would be no retail trade, no banking.

Nicaragua and Armed Guards
I have had the good fortune to travel to Nicaragua on several occasions. I have good friends there. I love the Nicaraguans and how they see life. But they have some issues with money. It is a very poor country, and robbery and theft is not uncommon. When you approach a bank in Nicaragua the armed guards ask you what your business is. If you go to pay your cable bill in Esteli, a town of 100,000 people, you must pass the armed guards. Theft is a serious problem, and they have created a solution for it.

Tanzania and Guards
I have had the good fortune to visit Africa on several occasions, staying for many weeks. You do not see a single gas station anywhere in the country without some sort of guard. The larger ones have armed security guards, the smaller ones might have a single man with some form of weapon, most likely not a gun.

Robbery in the US
We have some armed robbery in this country, of banks and convenience stores. We have lots of security cameras to try to deter this, but it still happens. What would we do if every single store or bank was robbed at least once a week or so? There would be a public outcry, and a call for change - but I am willing to bet that we would soon see armed guards at every one of those institutions, and we would all end up picking up the tab for that. Otherwise we would not have banks or retail stores. Fortunately, we do not have that cultural problem, but we do have one with violence.

The 2nd Amendment Argument
The 2nd amendment was part of a compromise called the Bill of Rights, that was drafted to get some of the separate nations that founded this country to adopt the constitution that created a federation of nations. Some were fearful that the federal government might replicate the oppression of King George, and they thought that providing for militias at the state level would get some of the more reluctant states to buy in. Whatever meaning is given to this part of the constitution by the Supreme Court, that will not change how we see guns and violence.

Articles on Gun Control
I have found these interesting. If you work your way through these, you will understand most of the "progressive" view on this issue. I confess that I cannot help much with the "conservative" view - whatever that is.

You won't like this solution
You have to admire the title chosen by this author - talk about click-bait. His main point is that about the ONLY thing we can do is to reach out to those loners among us, and help them to connect. He sees every other practical step as fraught with problems.
https://mystudentapt.com/2015/10/06/theres-a-way-to-stop-mass-shootings-and-you-wont-like-it/
He does a nice summary of why any real change is probably not going to happen. He does tie the issue to our real world, but he does not touch on the cultural or value issues underlying this discussion. Toward the end of the piece, he cites the next article.

Sam Harris
This is a pretty in depth evaluation of the pros and cons of various efforts at gun control. He wrote in a number of years ago in respond to Sandy Hook. It has been both praised and criticized.
https://samharris.org/the-riddle-of-the-gun/
Harris owns guns, and likes the idea that he can defend himself if need be. He points to the impossibility of depending on calling 911 to defend yourself at home, as opposed to confronting an invader with a weapon. I hear a flavor of conservative fear in there. He wants to control his own destiny.
He does a nice job on the statistics - from the number of guns out there, to the small risk actually present in our schools. He definitely leans into the idea of protecting our schools with more guns. He finally opinions that actually preventing "low frequency" events like school shootings is probably impossible. It is just part of our way of life, I guess. He handles the 2nd amendment well. It is a simple distraction from the real problem. Its original intent has been totally bastardized by the gun lobby.
His final recommendation is: "Rather than new laws, I believe we need a general shift in our attitude toward public violence—wherein everyone begins to assume some responsibility for containing it." I agree there, and he is on to something, but I do not think he quite understands it.

FaceBook Post 
A friend of mine, a school teacher, reposted a very nice summary of the discussion. I think you can find it here https://www.facebook.com/callista.kline/posts/10101483270002069. If the link stops working for some reason, I copied the text out and have it available here for public viewing. It is a young man writing to his mom about her view of gun control. He is a veteran, knows a fair amount, and was concerned that her somewhat naive approach would be ridiculed.

It reads very well, and is amazingly concise - witness my verbose efforts by contrast. He comes down in favor of universal background checks, and mental health screening. He mentions some other really good ideas: - registering all firearms - think automobiles'; - requiring insurance for all firearms - think automobiles again. Nicely done indeed.

BUT  . . . I do not see our cultural history and political climate allowing ANY of these changes to happen. Good or bad ideas, our current state of affairs is not going to support any of these.
He  mentions the idea of having armed security guards at the doors of all schools, but thinks it would potentially increase the risk that one of those folk would also become unhinged. Note that my proposal is NOT for armed security guards, but rather for highly trained, regularly tested and vetted police officers. A different breed of cat, I think.

Examples of Other Countries 
Yes, I have been to other countries, and I know they handle guns very differently - they think about violence and guns very differently. In Britain, for example, the police do not carry a weapon. They feel it is too dangerous, and there is no need. And they are right - for their culture and history. Imagine a NY city cop on the beat without his weapon! I don't think so. Japan is another example, where the general populace has forsworn most violence, and guns in particular. But, in my humble opinion, the public sentiment, the basic violent culture of our nation is not going to change, no matter how many marches we undertake, or even how many politicians we replace.

A Pragmatic Step
Given that our penchant to violence and to gun violence in particular is not going away soon, and that our political system is not going to respond in any meaningful way - is there anything at all that we can do?

A Cop in Every School
In my experience, every school I visit has a single entrance during the day. And it is secured, and must be opened from the inside. Why not position a single, highly trained police officer at that door with a gun? This raises some obvious questions:

  • Would it work? Only research can tell us that, but my gut says it would work, and my gut says that I would feel a lot better about having done something to deter school shootings.
  • Could it make the problem worse? We now have an armed person in every school. But this armed person is a highly trained professional, who knows how to deal with threats, violent and otherwise. This professional is chosen and trained specifically for this task of protecting our priceless children. And they will be periodically vetted and reviewed for their skills and mental stability. 
  • Can this be enacted? I am of the considered opinion that we could get this to pass at local state level, and at the national level. The NRA is NOT going to oppose it. They have been lobbying in support of it. What's not to like? It fits perfectly with our violent culture. It asks our most trusted civil servants, our police, to take on one more burden for our violence prone society. I doubt that they will decline. And if some states opt to not take part, so be it - they will bear the burden of explaining why in the event of any future attacks.
  • What would it cost? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average police officer salary in our country is now about $61,000. If we add 20% to that for fringe benefits, we get about $73,000. According to the National Center of Education Statistics, we have about 98,000 public schools, and 34,000 private schools. We clearly do not want to leave out the private schools, but we could make can an argument that they should bear their own cost. By simple arithmetic, we get to a total annual cost of $9.7 B. Our total investment in the education of our children comes to about $1 Trillion annually. This cost would represent a 1% increase in that budget. Now about 167 M of us are gainfully employed and pay SS tax, according to Pew Research. If we did the least progressive thing possible, and make those people bear the total cost of this, it would average out to $58 per person per year. A good investment to my mind. That said, the federal government just voted to increase our deficit by $1 Trillion, and added $77B per year to our defense spending. Where would you spend the money?

For some reason, I think the threat of gun violence in our schools can move all of us to SOME action. Let's make it a practical one that looks like it would have some impact.


Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Emotions and Empathy and Changing Views, etc.

This is not well formed yet, but it is interesting. I am going to work on it a bit and come back to it. All ideas on this very welcome. This is "under construction" - another favorite from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. That and "42".

We Are Not Rational
If you look at the current political climate, this is pretty obvious. People are not making rational decisions. They are voting against their own best interests. And it is not just "fake news" and Russian Facebook bots. Something else is at work. We generally do not make rational decisions. You can find a nice summary of that research here, and you can look at these books which I have reviewed previously: Thinking Fast and Slow, Righteous Minds,

Emotions Dominate
Research indicates that we are about 97% driven by our values, our emotions, our feelings. We also seem to have a genetic propensity to be either conservative or progressive. It can be moved around a bit, but it comes with the genetics. In either case, ideas are secondary at best. They are useful, but they do not drive action very much.

Group Membership Dominates
As Haidt points out, we are totally tribal. Our membership in our group gives us great comfort and support, and we find it very difficult to differ from the standard cultural norm. Some of our cultural norms are shared with the larger nation or group, but very many are much closer to home - family and friends.

BackFire is not what we thought
This blog entry covers this misconception pretty well.
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2018/02/it-is-not-about-facts-its-all-shared.html
The bottom line is that facts are resisted if they are counter to your beliefs or cultural values - but they are not denied. People will search for a critique of the fact, they will resist, but then they may accept it. It does not make their commitment any stronger - that is the error. But generally, they will either ignore it, or find another supporting fact for their value or belief.

One good example is the vaccination research issue. People who are resistive to having their children vaccinated because of the fear of autism, can be persuaded rationally that there is no real risk. When presented with clear facts, the actual studies, they will change their mind. BUT  . . . they do NOT change their actions. Even though their rational brain now recognizes that the facts do not seem to support their belief, they continue to follow the moral guidance of their belief!

Another project was conducted by the BBC called 911 Conspiracy Road Trip. The BBC took a group of 911 conspiracy adherents on a trip to introduce them to all kinds of participants in the disaster. You can see the whole show here: https://youtu.be/Tga4hXy8qws

After extensive information from experts at every level of the disaster, only one of the participants changed his mind. He happened to have a solid support infrastructure that did not reject him when he changed his view - a girl friend and small child. He was, however, vilified by the cult, even to the extent that peole sent child pornography pictures to his mother with his child's face on them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/10079244/The-911-conspiracy-theorist-who-changed-his-mind.html

We are driven by our social value milieu, our gut, our beliefs, our group - not by ideas. We look for ideas and facts to support our values and beliefs, not the other way around. To really change a belief or value, a lot more than information is needed.

Change Is Possible
The Podcast above mentions two successful change of view experiments that affected people's moral values, AND their actions. In one of them, a group of adherents to the

The second one research. This research was studied at length, but one of the studies used totally fictitious data, so it tended to discredit the original work. Subsequent studies have been more rigorous in their facts, and they have confirmed the results.

This study had to do with the constitutional change in California that legalized gay marriage.

So, change is possible on a one to one conversation, with an open and receptive adult, who is engaged by a mature, unthreatening, capable adult. Whew - how does one replicate that?

Social Empathy Works
This little tale precipitated all of this, so you might want to listen / watch it a bit.
WWII England Social Empathy

England is at war - resources are scarce - and yet they quickly pass a social welfare benefit for their children, because so many people were so intimately exposed to the dire straits of intercity children that they HAD to respond. I love the story, but  . . .

Now What?
How in the world does one replicate that?

Monday, February 5, 2018

It is NOT about the FACTS - It's all Shared Values

If you have been following along here - and I JUST know you have, this podcast documents an important insight that helps explain a bit our current situation in politics.
https://youarenotsosmart.com/2018/01/29/yanss-120-the-backfire-effect-part-four/

The Good News is that people will accept FACTS that are contrary to what they believe if they are presented clearly.

The Bad News is that our attitudes, values and such are NOT based on facts at all - but rather on the shared values we hold with others. We will find facts to support our values. If you knock one down, we will find others, or just ignore the facts altogether. If we want to move forward together, we need to work on our shared values - and how the heck do we do that?

This also means that things like meditation or mindfulness are not going to move things much. It helps to become fully aware of our shared values, but that will not change them one iota. To do that, we need to interact with others beyond our shared value circle - a rare event indeed.

This podcast had a number of episodes last year dealing with 'The Backfire Effect'. This is a highly cited paper which seemed to say that when you present facts to people, they tend to ignore things that are contrary to their values. The paper also implied somewhat that this would in fact increase their commitment to those facts because of their beliefs. Most of that understanding of the paper was not quite correct - and other researchers have found little confirmation of the Backfire Effect. So they set out to redo the studies with the original authors.

What we have learned is that FACTS are not important when we are dealing with the values or attitudes which people hold. Bluntly stated, no mountain of lies or misstatements by a person or group which we support will undermine our support for that group or value. Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton are not going to gain or lose supporters based on FACTS or information. It is the shared values that people are committed to which determine whom they support.

Giving people more information about vaccines does tend to correct their misunderstanding of the science - it does NOT tend to make them more likely to vaccinate their children. Giving people FBI statistics that gun violence has rapidly declined in recent years does not change their views about gun control. Sean Hannity did not change his view of our fearless leader when he got independent confirmation that the President did try to fire Robert Mueller last year. This fact had NO effect on his support.

We do not go from FACTS, to beliefs, to attitudes, to values, to shared values, to regional cultural norms which then influence our actions. Rather, the regional cultural norms are the key – they drive our values, which we then protect and justify with facts!

So, my question, what are the normative values that bring people to support things like protective nationalism versus inclusive humanity, and warlike bluster versus diplomacy? What shared values support cutting the taxes of the very wealthy and increasing the national debt to be paid by all of us by a trillion dollars. Is this purely the "strong leader" part of our social norms that comes from our conservative side - or it more complex?

And if we can identify those normative values, how on earth does one go about changing them - if one can at all? We are driven by values that are not rational! So? Resort to emotional persuasion. What?

I know we are all in this together - just not sure how I can help here. I also would like to put this on Facebook with a lot less words!

I would really like to understand this better. Can you hellp?