Dr. Fauci - Detailed Analysis of COVID 19

A Detailed Analysis of the potential of COVID 19  on humans

This text appeared in Facebook today - 7/18/2020.

I could not verify that it came from Dr. Fauci, or any medical expert. BUT it makes perfect sense to me. I would like to refer to it in the future so I am posting it here. I know that my numerous subscribers will appreciate it too.  Or NOT. Whatever works. 

I found it downright scary. And I plan act accordingly. And you should too.

Stay Safe. 

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Dr. Fauci comments on Facebook Post 7/28/2020

From Dr. Fauci.

“Chickenpox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.

Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.

HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.

Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.

So far the symptoms may include:

Fever

Fatigue

Coughing

Pneumonia

Chills/Trembling

Acute respiratory distress

Lung damage (potentially permanent)

Loss of taste (a neurological symptom)

Sore throat

Headaches

Difficulty breathing

Mental confusion

Diarrhea

Nausea or vomiting

Loss of appetite

Strokes have also been reported in some people who have COVID-19 (even in the relatively young)

Swollen eyes

Blood clots

Seizures

Liver damage

Kidney damage

Rash

COVID toes (weird, right?)

People testing positive for COVID-19 have been documented to be sick even after 60 days. Many people are sick for weeks, get better, and then experience a rapid and sudden flare up and get sick all over again. A man in Seattle was hospitalized for 62 days, and while well enough to be released, still has a long road of recovery ahead of him. Not to mention a $1.1 million medical bill.

Then there is MIS-C. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. While rare, it has caused deaths.

This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally *do not know* what we do not know.

For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:

How dare you?

How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.

How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:

Frequent hand-washing

Physical distancing

Reduced social/public contact or interaction

Mask wearing

Covering your cough or sneeze

Avoiding touching your face

Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces

The more things we can all do to mitigate our risk of exposure, the better off we all are, in my opinion. Not only does it flatten the curve and allow health care providers to maintain levels of service that aren't immediately and catastrophically overwhelmed; it also reduces unnecessary suffering and deaths, and buys time for the scientific community to study the virus in order to come to a more full understanding of the breadth of its impacts in both the short and long term.

I reject the notion that it's "just a virus" and we'll all get it eventually. What a careless, lazy, heartless stance.”

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Fix Democracy by Changing the Framework - SHORT version

Introduction - Document Parts

For all of you who have been following along here, I need a bit of help. As is my wont, I think best by writing and I've been thinking about this for some time - so I have written a lot. So  . . . as is also my custom, this is the short version. The longer one is here, which has some research cited.  

The Problem - Our Democracy is Failing
Our current form of democracy is based on the full participation of our citizens. They FEEL that they are represented, so they support the common decisions we make. The problem is that this form of government was constructed by and for old, educated, white, male, landowners of British cultural heritage. It barely worked at the start. It has had some major threats, and it currently feels like it is falling apart. People no longer feel that they are heard, that they are represented. They are no longer civil about the discourse needed to gain common purpose and commitment. This essay is a purely theoretical exercise in why that might be happening, and a prayer of how we might change that. 

And, as always, this is a Work In Process. Weigh in, think, help me out here.

Rules for Politics and Life for Non Rational Humans

1. Humans are rarely rational.

We have a long tradition that says we are rational beings. You need to let go of that. This is Kahneman and Thaler and Haidt and many others. We can be rational, but it's a lot of work, and it is pretty rare. This is now accepted science. We have a "slow" brain, a "fast" brain, and an "emotional" brain - if not more.

2. Humans are mostly automatic.

Most of the "decisions" we make are automatic responses. We go with the flow, with the tribe, family, religion, team, moral value, with what "feels right". This is not a problem - it is just the way things are. There does not appear to be a way to "fix" this - we are what we are. There is good research on this. 

3. We respond to others similar to the way we respond to music.

We need a way to "feel" how this works.The best analogy I have found is music. When you hear music, it moves you. It does something to your insides, it makes you feel and sense something. You cannot actually DO anything about that. You can't stop it, make it get better, make it go away. All you can do is turn off the music. Dance is very similar. When you dance, you become something different. You feel different, your brain goes somewhere else. There is some decent research on all of this. Our brains are super pattern recognition engines - well below our conscious control. Our brain is in charge - we are just the rider on the elephant. 

4. Different humans respond to different music.

Again, by way of analogy, we each respond to music differently. Som people who have amusia - they cannot distinguish musical tones - they respond very differently to music. I had the good fortune to have a freshman highschool teacher who set me on the path to love classical music. I do not respond well to atonal music, or to "rap" music. Nothing positive happens inside of me. That music actually upsets me. There does not appear to be anything I can do to change that. 

5. Humans have a biological propensity to very different personality types.

We are not all the same! Duh! As a type of one - me - I have absolutely NO IDEA how you respond to things. "Personality type" is probably not the best term, so feel free to suggest something better. What I mean is that each one of us responds to others in a somewhat different way. Some of us are a mix of these, but many of us have one dominant type. Some of this is cultural, but a lot is from our biology. Based on one scientific analysis and my personal observation, I think the biological "types" might be the following:

• Psychopath. This is not a sociopath. This person does not easily make empathic connections with others. They tend to be risk takers - fearless. When a problem or person is presented to this "type" they respond with a sense of critical analysis, but with little empathy. I put this one first, because I think it may be the only one empirically proven to have biological roots. See Dr. James Fallon on this one. We can detect this type with an MRI or an exam. They may represent about 5% of the population. Normal population studies only focus on sociopaths, so the population estimates are not useful.
• Narcissist. This person focuses almost exclusively on themselves. Their focus is on how they score, how they win. Nothing else matters. Many political leaders seem to be in this camp. You might have one in mind. Some research indicates that this type can be empirically identified. 
• Tribal. This person is highly influenced by friends, family, team, tribe, whatever relationships they have. This is based on my personal observation. I know of no empirical research as yet. Tribal may be a strong term - another one could be "persuadable". 
• Rational. This person tends to be sceptical of everything except empirical evidence. I think this is me, but I am not aware of a lot of research into this.
• Empathic. This type reads every person and every situation in terms of the emotional engagement called empathy. They FEEL for others. They continuously analyze how others feel, how they are related, how they respond to things. This is also from my personal observation - not empirically verified. 
• Sacred. This person is so committed to a belief or set of values that they cannot brook any threat. It is difficult for them to even consider a different set of facts. The flat earth society is a good example of how this works. Many religious believers fall into this category with respect to their personal religious sect or group. We all probably have beliefs that are simply unquestioned. 
• Organized. Otherwise known as OCD. This person must have things structured and ordered. Disorder or change is considered inherently dangerous. 
• Others. I am sure there are others.

6. All of these "types" are NORMAL.

These are not illnesses to be cured, these are not disorders. There is a normal distribution of these people in our world. and they function fairly well. They are not ill, they cannot be held at fault because they have this automatic behavioral response. Think of the Myers Briggs personality definitions. That taxonomy is basically flawed, but still a useful analogy. All of these types survived our evolutionary process, so they contribute something beneficial to the species as a whole.

7. It is helpful to know which type a person is.

If you are "differently abled", it is very helpful for you and for everyone else to be aware of this. If you have a "super" power in one area, and a "disability" in another, both you and your teachers, friends and family will find it very helpful to know how you operate. A person who is color blind needs to be aware of that before they learn to drive. A person with dyslexia learns differently. A psychopath tends to do things with higher risk. A narcissist always tends to choose what is best for them. And so on.

8. Our personality types are self selecting into opposing tribes.

We used to feel engaged as members of the same nation, the same tribe. Given modern media and communications, we now "feel" that we are members of different tribes or subgroups based somewhat on our personality types - not on our rational choices. And our tribes are at war. The "other" side is fundamentally flawed and is owed no respect. They are "crazy". This is something from our cultural psychology. We have less supportive connections with different opinions, so any opposing view feels more like an attack. 

9. Our political infrastructure was built for a small subset of personality types.

Our forefathers did not have neuroscience research at their command when they formulated our democracy. They had a long history of philosophical thought, but it was primarily geared to well educated male landowners with a British cultural background. What they built was risky, but it struggled along for a few hundred years. We have modified our government many times to enlarge democratic participation, and it has finally proven to be inadequate. Democracy is built on the premise that we all participate, so that as a result we all support decisions to further the common good. But we no longer "feel" that sense of commonality and support. Responding to the demands of the "tribes" our representatives rarely make decisions for the "common good". We have become a cauldron of civil unrest and tribal warfare.

10. We need a new political "framework" to support our understanding of how humans operate.

Majority selection of leaders by geographical district no longer makes us feel represented in a participatory democracy. We need another method to select leaders or make decisions that engages our different "personalities", or tribes, and can gain our common commitment. I think this is absolutely true - but I have no idea how we might accomplish it. We have created self selecting "tribes" called political parties on the national level, and that does not augur well. We have "irrational" people on both sides. We need some external structure or mechanism to "nudge" us all in the direction of the common good. We also need a formal statement of exactly what that common good is. "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" just doesn't cut it any more. Hint: it is not "white power". That ship has sailed. 

More Details on Our "Personality Types"

    This is the longer part for the subset of us that read and retain fairly well. I am working on it. 

You can find the full version here:

https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2020/11/fix-democracy-by-changing-framework.html

Covid Risk - An Analogy

Covid Risk - An Analogy

I was trying to explain to my lovely wife why I am not going to church or any enclosed space until I get a vaccine for this Covid business. So I came up with this analogy. See if it works for you.

Odds of Dying from it.

I think my odds of dying from this thing, if I get it, are about 80%. I am over 80, I have serious heart disease. If I get this thing, the outcome will not be good. That is my risk of dying if I get it. 

Odds of Getting It.

What is my risk of getting it in a crowd? The primary way this is passed around is through breathing in the virus in a crowd, or in close contact. People talking, singing, closed spaces, are all bad. Just talking to someone for a few minutes can easily do it. So . . .  what are the odds? What risk am I willing to take?

An Analogy

How about this analogy? You are invited to a huge party. A good friend is celebrating something and you have not seen them in a while. It would be great to see them, to meet your old friends there, to enjoy a drink and a meal, and memories. The only catch is that because of our civil war, the party has to be held in a large open field between the two opposing parties. No other choice. During the party, the two opposing sides will be firing at each other, and you might get hit by a bullet. But  . . . what are the odds? Let’s say the odds are 80%. NO ONE would go there, right? What if they are 50%? NO WAY. How low does it have to get before you are willing to take the risk? 10%?1%? Not sure?

Driving your car anywhere has a certain amount of risk. It is much riskier than air travel in normal times. You are 19 times safer in the plane than in your car - really - look it up. BUT you still run that risk to go to the grocery store. Your odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114. In a plane crash 1 in 9,821. And the flying numbers include all of the private air crashes. 

So my risk from dying in a car crash is about 1 in 100. So every time I go for a drive, I take a 1% risk - that seems doable. And I have some sense of control over that - it’s not going to happen to me. I’m the best driver in the world, and my car is helping these days. What if it were 1 in 50? A 2% risk. I would probably do it. 1 in 10?  10%? I think I would walk. If every 10 trips with a vehicle ended up with someone dead - we would not be driving that much. Heck, pedestrians run a risk of 1 in 500 of dying. It’s riskier than driving a motorcycle. 

Back to the party in the midst of gun fire. 1 in 10?  1 in 50? Not me, man. No way in heck. When that first shot goes off, everyone is going to be crawling out of there. So  . . . i am simply not going. The tricky part of this virus is that you don’t hear the gunshot - it’s quiet. And you don’t see the bodies falling - it takes about 2 weeks. 

But just picture the scene where 1 in 10 people in the room with you are going to get this disease. If you look at the actual case studies in closed spaces like restaurants, more than half the people in the room got it from one infected person. That is one in two! They did not all die - but remember we are talking about me here - 80% risk of dying. If I am in a closed space with 1 infected person for any period, my odds are worse than 1 in 2 that I will get this thing which has an 80% chance of killing me in a very painful way. No way in HECK. 

I’m staying home, and you should too.