Covid Risk - An Analogy

Covid Risk - An Analogy

I was trying to explain to my lovely wife why I am not going to church or any enclosed space until I get a vaccine for this Covid business. So I came up with this analogy. See if it works for you.

Odds of Dying from it.

I think my odds of dying from this thing, if I get it, are about 80%. I am over 80, I have serious heart disease. If I get this thing, the outcome will not be good. That is my risk of dying if I get it. 

Odds of Getting It.

What is my risk of getting it in a crowd? The primary way this is passed around is through breathing in the virus in a crowd, or in close contact. People talking, singing, closed spaces, are all bad. Just talking to someone for a few minutes can easily do it. So . . .  what are the odds? What risk am I willing to take?

An Analogy

How about this analogy? You are invited to a huge party. A good friend is celebrating something and you have not seen them in a while. It would be great to see them, to meet your old friends there, to enjoy a drink and a meal, and memories. The only catch is that because of our civil war, the party has to be held in a large open field between the two opposing parties. No other choice. During the party, the two opposing sides will be firing at each other, and you might get hit by a bullet. But  . . . what are the odds? Let’s say the odds are 80%. NO ONE would go there, right? What if they are 50%? NO WAY. How low does it have to get before you are willing to take the risk? 10%?1%? Not sure?

Driving your car anywhere has a certain amount of risk. It is much riskier than air travel in normal times. You are 19 times safer in the plane than in your car - really - look it up. BUT you still run that risk to go to the grocery store. Your odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114. In a plane crash 1 in 9,821. And the flying numbers include all of the private air crashes. 

So my risk from dying in a car crash is about 1 in 100. So every time I go for a drive, I take a 1% risk - that seems doable. And I have some sense of control over that - it’s not going to happen to me. I’m the best driver in the world, and my car is helping these days. What if it were 1 in 50? A 2% risk. I would probably do it. 1 in 10?  10%? I think I would walk. If every 10 trips with a vehicle ended up with someone dead - we would not be driving that much. Heck, pedestrians run a risk of 1 in 500 of dying. It’s riskier than driving a motorcycle. 

Back to the party in the midst of gun fire. 1 in 10?  1 in 50? Not me, man. No way in heck. When that first shot goes off, everyone is going to be crawling out of there. So  . . . i am simply not going. The tricky part of this virus is that you don’t hear the gunshot - it’s quiet. And you don’t see the bodies falling - it takes about 2 weeks. 

But just picture the scene where 1 in 10 people in the room with you are going to get this disease. If you look at the actual case studies in closed spaces like restaurants, more than half the people in the room got it from one infected person. That is one in two! They did not all die - but remember we are talking about me here - 80% risk of dying. If I am in a closed space with 1 infected person for any period, my odds are worse than 1 in 2 that I will get this thing which has an 80% chance of killing me in a very painful way. No way in HECK. 

I’m staying home, and you should too.