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Wednesday, March 29, 2017

World Bank Research on Behavioral Development Economics

If you have been following along here - and you are a small and priceless group - thank you for that - you would know that I am fascinated by the idea that the economic differences on the planet come, in large part, from how we think about things. I call it our "world view", or how we think things work. The Western, "developed" world has a different framework in their heads than the "developing" world. A sociologist named Hoffstede stumbled on this basic idea, and now a few people have been applying it to assist with development projects around the world.

I wrote a couple of pieces on that here based on my own experience - not formal research by any means. You can find that here:
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2014/03/culture-is-key-to-development.html 


I have also been reading in psychology, and in behavioral economics, which, as it turns out, are closely related. There are some posts here on those topics as well.
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2016/12/economics-dismal-science-and-how-they.html
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2013/03/thinking-fast-and-slow-book-report.html

Economics coupled with the latest psychological insights has developed something called Behavioral Economics. It is based on the latest psychological research which indicates that we are not very rational - hardly. We act spontaneously, without a lot of thought about it, etc. The book Nudge was written by one of the leading proponents of this school, Richard Thaler.  

In Thaler's latest book, Misbehaving, he talks about applying this idea of actual research into what works with normal humans in the world of development economics. It turns out, if you structure a deal one way, many more people will take it up, than if you do it the other way - the "rational" way. Humans are NOT rational. Better to design things for the way we work, but it takes research to figure that out! Of which we have precious little in the real world. The whole Millennium Village thing was theory based - precious little actual trial and error.

Both of those books are fun reads by the way - Thaler writes well and keeps a sense of humour about it all.

I looked about to try to come up some behavioral research for economic development. The genius of this is that sometimes tiny things make a big difference. For instance, in one example from educational research, if you set up a bonus program for good teachers, it works MUCH better to give them the bonus up front, rather than at the end. If the kids do not measure up, then you take the bonus back. You get a much higher achievement by the students simply because humans HATE to let go of something they have, but can easily ignore something they do not have yet. It just FEELS totally different. I was wondering what kind of things exist in the world of development - and the World Bank does too! So they published a study. Amazing.

The book is, "World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior" by the World Bank.

The book is at Amazon, and there is a way to read the introduction and the table of contents. I am interested in reading it, but I have a small pile of books in front of it. And I am just an interested bystander, after all. 

You can read the first part here for free: http://a.co/9EupGcU  
If you want to read the whole introduction, and the table of contents, you will need to get a preview in a Kindle reader. You can get a Kindle reader on almost any device - phone, computer, etc. 

 If you want a Kindle reader on your iPad or computer or phone - here's where to get that.
http://amzn.to/1r0LubW

See what you think, and let me know.

Remember, we are all in this together, and I'm pulling for you.

-----------------------------
For some reason I cannot post comments to my own posts. Gotta look at that.
But I want to tell folks that if you are at all interested in this topic, I discovered that the World Bank spent 2 years pursuing a research project on how modern neuroscience and behavioral economics might impact their efforts to encourage economic and social development around the globe. They published the results of that work in 2015, in a really fine monograph. I HIGHLY recommend it for anyone interested in economic development, global poverty, and the like. 

For a summary of the contents, read this brief “about”:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2015/about#1   

A free copy of the report in PDF format is here:

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/645741468339541646/World-development-report-2015-mind-society-and-behavior


Friday, March 10, 2017

Stages of Faith / Belief and Political and Economic Beliefs

I just read a commentary by David Felten on the book, Stages of Faith by James Fowler, which helped me a bit in the midst of our current crisis of political / economic craziness. You might find it also of some benefit. This is chart of the Fowler stages.

http://www.psychologycharts.com/james-fowler-stages-of-faith.html

This was mentioned in a Bishop Spong post - the good bishop has stopped doing weekly essays, and working on his latest book. So others are filling in for him. The 3/8/2017 comment by Felten mentioned this book, and applied this insight into maturing religious beliefs to, of all things, political "beliefs". I found it helpful. I could not find another published commentary like this by Felten, so I am reduced to giving you a brief summary of what he said. The Spong essay is a for-fee group, which you can find here, if you are interested. It was entitled:
The author has a good command of how Twitter works, and is well aware of the current brouhaha with traditional news sources, so it is also fun to read. BUT  . . . you have to be a paying member. I am reduced here to a few quotes of salient points.

Basically, he discussed the recent problems of "fake news" and "alternative facts" as they are being bandied about by the somewhat erratic defenders of our current elected fearless leader. He referenced this book about the development and maturing of religious beliefs as a way to better understand what is going on in the realm of political "beliefs". That alone is a major step - recognizing that we humans do not do "rational" things with political ideas, any more than we do with religious ones or economic ones. There is excellent research supporting that - and I have made a few comments in this space about that. I am persuaded that the "science" of economics is much better understood as a collection of "schools of belief" - people defend their position in the face of any amount of contrary information. Politics is exactly like that. Our brains treat it the same way.

If you read the post above about the stages of religious development, it makes some sense. I do not know if these are based on any hard research or science, or whether they are simply the reflections of the author - but they FEEL good to me. They follow along with the stages defined by the work of Piaget, and Kohlberg, M. Scott Peck and Erickson.

Kohlberg's work is very similar around how people make moral or ethical decisions. We seem to grow from self centered individuals, to ones more focused on peers and our tribe, to a final, mature adult who can, pretty much, think and operate independently of these influences. I think the key is our increased empathy with others. And that we seem to "grow up" in different realms at different speeds, so we might be at one stage in one part of life, like religion, and in another in our political, or economic. But  . . . they are all belief systems, so . . .

The author sees the source of this problem in Christianity and the bizarre belief system people set up to maintain their simplistic, mythic beliefs in the face of modern science and knowledge. But, in fact, humans are just this way. Christianity had nothing to do with it. It takes a LOT of work to do things rationally. It takes more than just the passage of time to move someone up the scale of belief, be it in the realm of religion or politics. And we have yet to discover a better mechanism for teaching people how to grow up, as it were, in this realm. I remain hopeful that we will eventually figure this out, but we have come a long way just to recognize the problem.

Here are a few pithy excerpts from the essay:
  • As many Christians grow up, they are expected to believe that the biblical story of “Noah’s flood is actually a historical, factual account” – despite the impossible logistics and the appalling theology. Every day, countless fundamentalist Christians congratulate themselves for being able to suspend disbelief and embrace the “divine wisdom” of an all-loving and gracious God committing global genocide.
  • In analyzing people’s susceptibility to “fake news,” Christopher Douglas notes that this tendency has its historical origin in Christian fundamentalism’s rejection of expert elites.” While many Catholics and Mainline Protestants have taken the last 150 years of expert Biblical and theological scholarship to heart, Fundamentalism has proudly embraced the rejection of science and rational thought as a badge of honor – oftentimes creating whole universes of “alternative facts” (the so-called “Biblical Worldview”) to defend a literal 6-day creation, intelligent design, and Jesus’ literal virgin birth and physical resurrection.
  • So, as in our current political sphere, no matter how articulate Progressive Christians are in expressing the wisdom of Progressive Christianity, Fundamentalist Christians will simply never come around. Never. After all, their very identity is, in part, rooted in the ability to not only dismiss any evidence that contradicts their worldview (fake news!), but to double down on the veracity of their “alternative facts.” As objective and well-grounded as Progressive Christian apologists might be in pointing out the shortcomings of a Fundamentalist mindset, it will make no difference. Theological liberals can choose to continue the debate, but to what end? Any serious conversation is doomed before it starts, a casualty of the war between two irreconcilable tribes.

The author does not have a real "solution" to how these folks operate, but rather one for the rest of us, who see the problem. His suggestion is that we need to let go of the idea that we are right, and they are wrong. These are just different "views" or "stages" of the problem. To quote again:
  • Once liberated from the dualism of being “right or wrong,” there’s no need to try and convince a Stage 3 person of anything. Simply be who you are where you are on the spiritual journey. Don’t be deterred from being a person on the way to Stage 6 for fear of offending someone in Stage 2. Just get on with it. We no longer need to feel the urge to give in to our tribal impulse to prove others wrong and ourselves right.
  • If we’re familiar enough with Fowler’s stages, we can endure a sermon that is theologically medieval and resist the urge to shout, “You’re WRONG!” Instead, we can simply acknowledge, “Wow, that was a seriously “Stage 2” sermon. There may even be an opportunity to demonstrate some Stage 5 compassion by empathizing with the pastor: “I know she’s a Stage 5 Christian, but the demographic of her church is Stage 3. That must be really hard on her spiritual integrity to preach to where people are rather than where she’d like them to be…”.
  • Think of how helpful a “Stages” labeling system could be. For the benefit of the consumer, whole churches or denominations could be designated as Stage 2, 3, 4, or 5 – saving people a lot of grief in choosing a faith community. Like English 101 or 102, Bible studies could be identified as Stage 4 or Stage 5. Perhaps truth-in-advertising would lead to announcements indicating “WARNING: Stage 2 Bible Study!”

#tremendous #huge

It reminds me somewhat of my "rules of thumb for life". This is the way things are - stop worrying about it, there's no way to change it. You can adapt to it, but you can't "fix" the other person, because there is really nothing wrong with them. They are where they are. It would be like trying to introduce the idea of economic interdependency to a 2 year old. You are better off talking about the tooth fairy and Santa Claus to convey the idea. BUT, it still upsets me that we have elected fearless leaders that seem to be perpetually stuck in stage 1 or 2, not even up to the "normal" level of 3. I am somewhat similarly upset that I cannot explain the Santa myth to a child, but I can live with it!

The other side of that, it would be a great mistake to just write off all of those "immature" humans who do not agree with my "rational" approach. There is little to be gained in that. Rather, this helps a bit to really get inside how they see things, and understand that they are NOT the enemy, NOT stupid, NOT crazy. Since they are not going to "move forward" or "upward" in any hurry, we had best be about trying to speak at their level if we want to make any progress at all.

But I am persuaded that we might yet find a way out of this perpetual gut instinct thing. I have seen some research that "mindfulness" or "meditation" in almost any form provides people with more empathy, and more openness to the views of others - offering the slim hope that we might be able construct social mechanisms of education or the like that will actually move us forward as a society. That is, as soon as we fix the serious structural problems with our economic systems and form of government. Or perhaps not. We shall see.