Subscribe for updates

Monday, December 18, 2017

Cognitive Science and Mindfulness and a Way Forward

Sometimes it all does kind of work out. I have been reading in psychology and cognitive science for a few years now. I got started on it all by reading about economics - Behavioral Economics in particular. There are some posts in this blog along those lines:

The problem with much of this was that it led me to despair. We are barely rational creatures, and there does not appear to be much we can do to improve our performance in that regard. We are born conservative or progressive, team oriented, tribal, loving hierarchical systems and power - and that is how we will remain. 

There Is Hope
Coming down to today, when I stumbled on this article, which struck me JUST RIGHT - thank you very much. It is all about how our brain really works, and what we might actually do to improve it!  If the above makes any sense to you at all, you should like this one too. I think this field of neuroscience is actually getting to the point where we might be able to do something about our crazy way of thinking and making decisions.
https://www.bakadesuyo.com/2017/10/more-mindful/

Mindfulness it is. To entice you to read this, here is his summary, as stated at the end of the piece.

Sum Up
Here’s what you and you and you need to know about how to be more mindful:
  • There are many yous: Like apps on a smartphone, different systems in your brain with different goals can take control at different times, which is why you can behave so inconsistently.
  • Feelings are what give a module control: You get worked up by what your buddy said and suddenly your brain is hijacked by “Angry Birds” instead of “Words With Friends.”
  • Meditation can prevent hijacking: Over time, meditation can rewire your brain to be less impulsively reactive and allow you to thoughtfully respond to your feelings.
  • Mini-meditations help in the moment: By focusing on your breath during a tense moment you can get some of the long term effects of meditation right when you need them.
  • Less reactivity means fewer hijacks which leads to better decisions and more alignment between thought and action. Over time, that leads to wisdom.
I am fully persuaded that we will eventually introduce "mindfulness" or "meditation" training in kindergarten or preschool, much as we use modern psychology teaching methods today, as opposed rote copying and repeating. It may take a while, but it will make a profound difference. We may actually have an informed populace who make half way decent political and economic decisions. At the very least, I hold on to that hope.

Let me know what you think. Remember, we are all in this together, and I'm counting on YOU! Thank you, Red Green.



Sunday, September 3, 2017

I Wish You Well

I can say the entire content of this piece right up front in one phrase: when you meet someone, wish them well, sincerely, without saying a word. See what happens.

I first heard this bit of wisdom from a physician from the Mayo Clinic. He spoke at our parish about stress reduction. He is a native of India, and when he came to the US, he thought he was coming to the promised land. What he discovered is that our lives are full of stress. His current research is on how to reduce stress. You can find his book and other comments below, with a link to his talk on YouTube. I just want to extend his idea a little bit. This is all based on neuroscience research, and there are books and articles below if you want to pursue it further.

Pattern Recognition
The human brain is pretty amazing. It recognizes patterns almost instantly. And it makes a decision based on that information just as fast. This is an instrument honed by evolution to enable us to survive, to quickly identify friend or foe. We respond to threats before we even realize it. We make judgments about people we meet in sub second time. If you are aware of this, you can maximize your return from an encounter right up front.

The Fast Brain
Daniel Kahneman calls this our "fast brain". It takes us a significant amount of time before our slow brain actually recognizes what is going on. When that tiger appears in the path, your body is running before you even recognize what you just saw.  You respond to it, and then you later realize what is going on. It is also unconscious and automatic. Turns out most of what goes on in our brain is not conscious to us - yet it affects what we do and how we feel. 

Talk to the Elephant
Jonathan Haidt says we are like an elephant, walking along with a driver up on top. Our emotional side is the elephant. Our thinking and reflective part is the rider or driver. The thinking part, the driver, thinks it is directing the elephant, but it is the emotional elephant that decides where we go. When the elephant sees something it recognizes, it responds with emotion - it heads toward it, or away from it, depending. We only realize the response after the fact - and sometimes we can actually change the direction, but generally not. It takes a fair amount of reflection and mental energy to deflect the elephant! This is not a theory, by the way. It is based on excellent experimental research.

Visible Emotion
When you wish someone well, you change your whole person, your voice, your face, your posture, your gestures. You change everything about you, and the person you are speaking to knows it instantly with their fast brain. Since it is emotion that you are showing, it talks to their elephant. They are not yet aware of what is happening, but their elephant responds. "This person wishes me well, so I will respond in kind." But it MUST be sincere. You cannot just fake it, unless you are a consummate actor. Coming off as a phony is not conducive to a good relationship.

When to Use It?
Well - all the time. When you meet a stranger, wish them well. When someone waits on you at a counter, wish them well. When you call a customer service person, wish them well - it will show up in your voice. Of course, it will help if you actually say things like, "How is your day going?" And if you are in a customer service role yourself, it works just as well. Wish that person well. Just walking about and wishing well to total strangers will bring you a sense of empathy, and calmness and caring that will improve your day. Try it.

Negotiating
I taught a university class on negotiation for 15 years. It was based on the book Getting to Yes, by Roger Fisher and others. This was supported by another text with hundreds of pages of actual research on what works in negotiating agreements. But the text never mentioned this simple little understanding of human interaction. It is clear that a solid agreement has to be Win-Win. If either side feels that they lost, the implementation of that agreement is at great risk, and there will be serious consequences going forward.

Build a Trust Relationship
The first priority in negotiating is always to build a trust relationship. Once the parties have a basic trust, they can accomplish almost anything. Nothing invites trust like wishing someone well - sincerely. M. Scott Peck, in his book, The Different Drum, found that if he could get the parties into a room together for three days, where they shared their values and concerns, then they could negotiate from a solid foundation of respect and trust. Three days is a lot of investment - I always wondered what would happen to our elected leaders if we confined them to a room with the other side for three days. They might be willing to "wish each other well". As it stands now, they do not even sit near each other - they never share a meal together, or even a personal chat.

How to Persuade
Have you ever been in a situation where the other person just does not understand your point of view? No matter how you explain it to them, no matter what arguments or facts you bring to bear, they are simply not getting it. Based on good research, when you give someone information that is against their beliefs, it will actually strengthen those beliefs. They see your arguments as an attack. Their elephant is afraid, and it won't let the driver even consider the information. So your "attack" confirms their opinion - strengthens it. This is called Identity Protective Cognition, or more simply: The Backfire Effect. We react automatically to information that threatens our sense of who we are, the values we hold, or our group identity.

Talk to the Elephant
The elephant is the key - talk to the elephant. Focus on the emotions and values of your friend. And do call them "friend" - negotiating with enemies is almost impossible. They are not an opponent - we really are all in this together, and we affect each other with everything we do and say. If you can hold that belief, and continue to wish them well, you can speak to their emotions - not their brain.

Repeat What They Say
Literally - repeat it, just as they said it. It will generate a bond. You don't need to agree, just repeat it. See what happens.

Ask Them to Explain
Tell them that you would like to understand their viewpoint more clearly. Tell me more about that public policy that you are promoting. Help me understand it. You have to be sincere here - just pretending will not work. Their pattern recognition engine will see it immediately. Focus on the values that they are expressing, not just the ideas. Empathize with those values - work to build some form of trust relationship on your common values and beliefs. Forget about your own ideas and arguments for a bit. I find this last part very difficult.

If the issue is complicated - for example, the foreign trade balance, or the national debt - ask them to explain to you just how it works. Good research shows that most of us do not have a solid understanding of most of our basic beliefs. If we pause for a moment and try to explain just how something works, we often discover that we actually do not understand it very well. That can open us up to learn something new about it.

Reflect Back Your Understanding
This is straight out of Steven Covey, the 5th Habit. It works to repeat what they say, but it works even better to rephrase it, show that you understand it. Listen, and reflect back their emotional content, their values - not just the words they are saying or the ideas - reflect how they feel about these things. Covey used to say: "Listen with your eyes for feelings". Forget the words - focus on the feelings and emotions and values. How do they look? What is going on here? Empathize with those feelings and values. They will see that, they will feel that and they will respond. You are talking to the elephant.

Ask Them to Help You Understand the Source of Their Opinion
This is important - do not offer them your opinion. Even with a trust relationship, that will be seen as an attack. Remember the research above about how our elephant responds to information that is counter to our belief. We get defensive. Instead, explore with them the basis of their opinion or belief. Reference their family, their group, their peers, as that is the likely source of their opinions - more so than any research and thinking. Talk about your own values, what you hold dear. Try to find a common value that you can agree on. Any agreement will build up the trust relationship.

Best Hope - raise a doubt
Your best hope, maybe your only hope, is to raise a tiny question of doubt in their mind. Be positive, affirming. Ask them to help you understand. Where did their opinion come from, what kind of support do they have for it? If they can explain it, YOU might learn something. If they can't, you might raise a tiny bit of doubt. Sometimes that is all it takes. And, hey, YOU could be wrong too. If you aren't open to that, you should probably not be talking with them.

Keep It Simple
We are black and white thinkers - for or against. All that nuanced stuff just does not work for our emotional self. Talk about simple values - home and family and parent and country. Don't argue the nuances of the tax code or foreign trade - even professional economists can't get their heads around those things. Well, most of them cannot - the behaviorists get it pretty well.

Remember, we are not dealing with FACTS here - we are dealing with values and emotions. Most people are intuitive, not reflective. They actually do NOT want more information. We find it too confusing. Imagine trying to make a rational decision among the thousands of choices that the cereal aisle in the grocery store presents. Can't be done.

Conclusion
Clearly I have gone off the deep end in terms of details. So, to simplify:
  • Talk to the elephant! 
  • Respect their values, respect them.
  • Seek first to understand.
  • Find shared values.
  • Wish them well. Really!
Postscript
This still reads well, but there is a new book that does it even better:
How to Have Impossible Conversations, by Peter Boghossian, and James Lindsay.
This is a remarkable collection of the latest research, and a step by step guide to learning how to do this. 

Resources


Sunday, August 27, 2017

The Problem With People's Thinking - changing someone's view

If you have been following along here at all - and MOST of you have not - you know that I am fascinated with how people think, and how we might ever actually persuade anyone of anything. It seems basically impossible to change someone's view. I am fascinated by how that works.

Fast Brain and Slow Brain
I found a lot of information in the book, Thinking Fast and Slow, and published a little review of that. It's an excellent work, and I highly recommend it. It is an explanation of the actual research by the scientist who did it - not a popularization. My review is here.

It helps to understand that we have two ways of thinking. One is FAST - intuitive, instant, genetically tuned over hundreds of thousands of years to help us avoid dangers. The other is SLOW - deliberative, difficult, hard to do. And thinking slow is so much work, that when we do it for any extended period, we do it even more poorly.

Pattern Recognition in our Brain
Another way of thinking about this is that our brain is finely tuned by evolution to recognize PATTERNS. The brain sees a large collection of data, and immediately recognizes a pattern buried in the data, and then responds to that. And it does it without any conscious control on our part. For example, when you first meet someone, your brain makes a nearly instant judgement about the trustworthiness of that person, based on a whole collection of data that your brain recognizes as a pattern. The demeanor, the smile, the posture all help form this rapid judgement. If you were to try to break down what just happened, you would not actually be aware of all of the components of that pattern. In a similar way, when you look at the faces of people running for elected office, your brain makes a rapid judgment about their trustworthiness.

It turns out that we are very quick to make very bad judgments about people by looking at their face - but we do it very quickly and not consciously. For more see this study.

You CAN overcome the first, fast judgment, but that is a lot of work, and it is very demanding and tiring. Most people do not do that most of the time - it is just too much work. And, it is dangerous. There is no point in trying to analyze that pattern of the lion in the path - just start moving the other way.

When it comes to persuading someone of a simple FACT, it turns out that we generally do not deal well with facts. We operate mostly on intuition that reacts to the patterns we see. And our intuition works hard to defend itself. If we threaten someone's intuitively held belief, their ego or self feels threatened, and it throws up all manner of defenses. In fact if you offer someone information that runs counter to their beliefs, that actually reinforces their belief. That is NOT a problem, it is simply how humans work. It is called identity protective cognition. Check it out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_cognition

Progressive/ Conservative
We also have two different world views that are somewhat genetic in origin, and further refined by our cultural upbringing. Jonathan Haidt has done a fine study of these in his book The Righteous Mind. We all have 5 basic moral values that form our ethical beliefs. But progressives tend to lean strongest on the first two, while conservatives put a lot more emphasis on the others.

Haidt's Moral Values Theory
These are the values that Haidt believes drive virtually all moral decisions:
  • Harm / Care. 
  • Fairness / Reciprocity.
  • In Group Loyalty. Only humans can form very large groups, which was a major step in enabling us to create civilization.
  • Authority / Respect. We love strong leaders.
  • Purity / Sanctity. Sex on the right, food on the left.
You can read more about that here:
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2016/02/why-are-those-idiots-from-other.html

Intuitive / Deliberative
It also seems that some of us are more prone to intuitive thinking rather than the deliberative kind. Researchers used to think that intuitive thinking would not be as prevalent if someone were more intelligent, or were better educated. Neither of those seem to be the case. It appears that SOME of us are more prone to deliberative, and less tuned to intuitive. I'll let you guess which one I am! This has come to light in some studies about how one type is more prone to be religious that the other.
http://time.com/4038407/religion-intuition-deliberation/?xid=newsletter-brief

I guess that is good news, in that it further clarifies why humans tend to be so stuck on their beliefs in the face of any amount of information to the contrary.

This is NOT Rational
When a presidential candidate that fits your GUT or instinctual sweet spot says something totally outrageous, you tend to find an explanation for that, or just simply ignore it. But also means that no amount of information, education, or native smarts is going to persuade people about things that are simple facts that are contrary to their beliefs or values. They are not open to debate. For a simple example, over 40% of people in the US believe in creationism.
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/02/creationism-america-survey_n_5434107.html

And this is not just generic creationism - these folk believe that a deity created humans in the form we have now within the last 10,000 years. That defies all rational behavior, but it is true. An additional 31% believe that the deity guided the evolutionary process to arrive at you and me. That is a tad more rational, since it can somewhat be reconciled with the evidence. A tweak here and there is all it would take for the most powerful entity in the universe to guide things to us. But that means that only 19% think evolution is what it seems to be - a simple part of how all things work.

How to move forward
So . . .  faced with that, how does anyone ever actually analyze things like "trickle down economics", or a "free market", or "economic impact of immigration", or "global warming", or "statistics on the effect of gun control", or whatever the latest problem is? I think the simple answer is that you do NOT. You need to let go of that approach. In fact, offering information just confirms the contrary belief. Just repeating the contrary belief reaffirms it. You need to take a totally different tack.

I am certain we must continue the research into all of those things, but we should not be misled that the simple creation of the factual research results is going to have much impact. You need a story, and a value based framework to make any significant change in human kind. Think songs, plays, Disney!

Re-Framing
This is the approach best supported by the neuroscience we have at this point. See this article for more on that:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/02/the-simple-psychological-trick-to-political-persuasion/515181/
Don't Think of an Elephant, by George Lakoff.
Dr. Lakoff's approach is to NOT even mention the "elephant", that is, the other person's viewpoint. Instead, focus on values that you share with the other person, and recast the whole discussion into those values.

I seem to have a real problem doing this. I am a somewhat middle of the road progressive - I lean hard on Care / Harm and Fairness, and I am somewhat open to some of the other moral values: Group Loyalty, Authority / Respect, Purity / Sanctity - but not much. For example, I would find it very insincere to frame an argument about Global Warming in terms of the power bestowed on us by the deity in the biblical story of creation. I also have a hard time thinking that those with power and authority based simply on their position and tradition are owed any respect at all.

Turns out there are OTHER ways to approach people if you are interested in a discussion that might actually lead to new knowledge and understanding on BOTH sides. There is an internet community within Reddit, that has been working on this for some time. Reddit is nothing like Facebook - it is primarily text - and it has strict RULES of civility. Imagine that. One of the cooler things is that as people read things they get to vote them up or down. You can easily see the most popular stuff right at the top - it is NOT filtered by your prior choices or preferences - unlike Google and Facebook.

One of the sub-reddits or communities deals with changing your view: Change My View. AND it can work! This group was used as a data mine for a doctoral research paper on the best ways to approach people with different views. That paper can be found here:
https://chenhaot.com/pubs/tan-thesis.pdf

I got this from a podcast, which you might enjoy listening to more than reading the research - it starts off with the Trix Rabbit:
 https://youarenotsosmart.com/2016/10/09/yanss-086-change-my-view/

You will also find a nice summary of the results here:
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/10/how-to-change-someones-mind-according-to-science/?utm_term=.421ec88fc11a

Here are the main findings, rephrased by yours truly:

Ask the other person to outline the reasons they hold this belief. 
If they have good reasons, that means they have really thought it through. If they do not, there is a high likelihood that they simply hold to this belief without a lot of thought, and they will be resistant to any change. If you can help them work through the basis of their belief, that might move them to think about it a bit more. This clearly has to be done in a supportive framework. Think of Steven Covey's rule: Seek first to understand, then to be understood. Help them express their belief and the reasons for it, in their terms, in their values. You want them to say, yes, you have it! That's right! This lowers their protective threshold. Covey came to this through simple practice - no neurological research - but it does work.

I found one of the keys to this is to NOT think of all the arguments I would make against their view. That leaks out to the other person, they pick it up, and they stop thinking and explaining, and begin arguing. Be positive and affirming - let go of your opinions - hang in there. Show clear empathy.  "Wish them well" inside your head, and it will leak out so they can see it. And you might  learn something as well.

Do Not Attack In Any Way.
Do NOT offer any negative comments about their point of view. Do not attack it in any way. Simply state your perspective calmly and clearly. Any attack will immediately raise a defensive wall.

Use Bullet Points.
Explain your point of view in some length, but not TOO LONG. Break it up into bullet points. Reference their reasoning points one by one. This helps them see each component separately, and it lets them respond to them individually.

Point to Facts Calmly.
You can point to facts and studies - summarize the result and then reference the other paper or discussion. Use calm language, not hyperbole, not emotional content.

Do not claim a superiority of numbers or anything similar.
Ad hominem arguments tend to backfire. It comes across as an attack to tell them that they are an outsider.

Hedge your statements.
For example, you might say: "It could be the case that such and such", instead of "It is definitely proven that such and such". This tends to soften the tone and avoid a defensive response.

When To Stop.
Research says that after 4 exchanges or so, if you have not made much headway, let it go. Do not lose a friend over it. You can always come back later.
The way people explain their reasons can also give you a pretty good idea as to whether they will be amenable to actual discussion. If they use "I" a lot - things are more likely to go well than if they use "we" - a group with which they identify. Group membership tends to dominate over individual thinking.
If they use superlatives a lot - MOST, GREATEST, BEST, ANYONE, CERTAIN - things are also not likely to go well. (Where have I heard superlatives used abundantly of late?)

Hang in there.
The researchers found, that even in this forum, where people come expressly to get their views challenged, and the rules of civility prevail because the admins enforce them, MOST people do not change their initial view.

My bullet summary: 
  • Build a relationship of trust with the person, or the audience. 
  • Talk about values you share. 
  • Ignore the differences - absolutely IGNORE them. If you are running for political office, NEVER even mention the other view or the other opinion. 
  • Talk about the values that you hold, that you share with most people. If someone has to know where you stand on a specific decision, find a way to cast your answer into these values - not the simple black and white.
  • Ask them to explain the reasons for their belief or opinion.
  • Do not criticize or speak negatively about their statements.
  • Talk calmly, point to facts, not groups of things or people.
  • Seek to understand and restate their opinion better than they do.
  • Inside your head, wish them well - it will show.
Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together.

POSTSCRIPT
It is important to really respect and value the other side. It simply does not work to hold them responsible, blame them for their feelings, etc. But I always have a tough time trying to understand how they could possibly hold to such crazy ideas and still be functioning humans. If that is your problem, try this little thought experiment with me. 

What does this FEEL like in the other person?
To get a bit of empathy with the other person, think about the following stories. Psychologists conduct experiments where they present a story that offends one's sense of what is "sacred". 
Eating the Family Dog
For example, what if the family pet, Rover, was hit by a car in the street. The father goes out and collects the dead animal, brings it inside. And then he announces to the family that since there are cultures that eat dogs, the family should roast Rover and have him for dinner. MOST people react pretty negatively to that - without thinking at all. Rationally, a dog is meat - just as much as if it were a cow, or a squirrel, or rabbit. There is really nothing wrong with eating the family pet.
Brother Sister Sex
For another example, what if a brother and sister were on vacation together, and they decide to experiment with sex. Neither of them have ever had sex, and they figure it would be fun to learn together. They use some form of birth control, so there is no likelihood of a pregnancy. Again, most people react immediately. But there is no good rational reason for why they should not have sex if progeny are unlikely.
Pedophilia
I have never found the above examples to be compelling, but this one does it for me. A friend of mine was talking about an article in a magazine, lamenting that there is such a stigma to pedophilia that people who have this predilection cannot reveal it to anyone, not even to seek help. He went on to talk about the movement where people with this attraction to young people are seeking to legalize the practice where both parties consent. And, he said, we have to recognize that for some people, this attraction to really young people is simply how they are built, the same as any person attracted to the same sex. Now that one got me. I could feel the negative emotion rising right up, and I was about to object with words about age of consent and the like. But I saw it coming - and I was able to stop it and think about it. I could still feel it - this negative, immediate reaction, but I could explore it a bit. As my friend pointed out to me, there are cultures where sex among young people, and between generations is perfectly acceptable. In those cultures, people are not damaged by the experience. There is nothing anatomically or physically or psychologically harmful in that practice in that world. 
Those "Others" are Feeling that their Sacred has been Violated.
If you had the same reaction to that which I had, it is powerful. My sense is that this is the same thing that our friends on the "other" side feel when something is presented to them that their identity cannot accept. It is not rational. It takes quite a bit to stop, grab the feeling, and examine it. Keep that in mind when you talk with them. Wish them well.

ADDENDUM
Just an addendum on this one - there is a wonderful cartoon series, complete with bibliography, which explains the genetic component of this pretty well - in, basically, comic book form. You might enjoy it - just saying:
 http://www.startribune.com/this-is-your-brain-on-politics/451274073/?ref=nl&om_rid=1627155913&om_mid=59510217

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Jonathan Haidt, Righteous Minds - an update

Back in January of 2016, I posted a review here on Jonathan Haidt's book: The Righteous Mind :
https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2016/02/why-are-those-idiots-from-other.html

I have continued reading around and about him, and have stumbled on a few more things that I thought folks might find interesting. One of my problems with the book is that he explains the PROBLEM very well, but offers NOTHING that we can do about it.

Progressives and conservatives have the same moral values, but they put very different weights on them. Those values are, just as a refresher:


The five foundations of morality:
  • Harm / Care.
  • Fairness / Reciprocity.
  • In Group Loyalty. Only humans can form very large groups, which was a major step in enabling us to create civilization.
  • Authority / Respect.
  • Purity / Sanctity. Sex on the right, food on the left.
The key thing to remember here is that "he is NOT making this up". This is based on excellent research, corroborated by many others. 

BUT in the book, he presented NO idea on how we might overcome this tendency to divide us. People tend to fall down on a decision based on their leaning - the elephant is going there - your brain as the driver is not in charge. And when we are offered facts or opinions that run counter to the things we believe based on our moral values, we tend to reject them out of hand, with the result that our beliefs are even more entrenched. 

This is not a good way to achieve consensus and factual understanding of our problems and issues.

I just found a talk by Haidt (thank you Reddit) that presents some additional information and some recommendations on how we might actually start to bridge this gap in our society. He has 4 recommendations in there that hit me just right.


These are Jonathan Haidt's recommendations for bridging the divide between progressive and conservative morality values:  12/2016

1 - Reduce role of money in politics.
2 - Decentralize: Subsidiarity plus experimentalism
3 - Cut 2 years of high school math; replace with economics and statistics
4 - Increase viewpoint diversity in the academy: expose students to multiple moral matrices.
===============================
My comments: AMEN.

1 - money in politics - We want politicians amenable to the public, not the big corporations and wealthy only. The democracy is literally at risk if the rank and file feel that they are NOT represented. That is the whole genius of democracy: the sense that the government is responsive to my issues and concerns - plus protecting minority rights, of course. Overturn Citizens United by legislation. Reduce the funds required for campaigning at ALL levels by public funding, setting maximums, reducing time periods, etc. Some other form of democratic representation might even be called for at some point that can narrow the scope. See my suggestions here: https://carlscheider.blogspot.com/2012/11/i-hate-elections.html
2 - decentralize. Haidt mentions Fractured Republic by Yuval Levin. Push responsibility down to the lowest level possible. And at the same time, subsidize more experiments on how we do things. I have not read that book yet, but the idea makes sense. Keep it as local as you can. Set guidelines and standards for broader areas, and have escape mechanisms where local control is abused, using audits, etc. It makes a lot of sense. People can also act a bit more civilly when they actually get to know each other - see M. Scott Peck on that one: The Different Drum.

3 - Cut 2 years of high school math; replace with economics and statistics
Amen again. I never did get much practical use out of trigonometry and solid geometry. I never took calculus, which they are pushing now at this level. These courses might be useful as a kind of test to see if you have the brain for math. I do not have a that kind of brain, and I suspect a lot of us do not. BUT economics and statistics, which I have had to learn on my own through reading, are almost essential to rational thought about our world. I would just caution that economics has to be more than a history overview course - it has to reach at least to Behavioral Economics so we understand the interplay of our psychological limitations and our economic decision making. People in elected offices make completely stupid claims daily about simple things like trade, the lump of labor fallacy, currency as wealth, etc. I am under the impression that most of them have no clue how currency exchange works around the world, let alone in the Fed. And most economic schools of thought are not science - they are more like religious beliefs. I would also be tempted to throw in a bit of psycho-social research on our fundamental tribal nature. But that might fit in the religious category below.

4 - Increase viewpoint diversity in the Academy. Absolutely. We need progressives and conservatives who can talk to each other civilly, and can challenge each other. We also need psychopaths and people with autism. (Look that one up!) We all have a key role to play in moving our society forward - we can’t get there if we are not all active participants. One way to begin is to expose students to the psycho - social research of the source of our moral values, and how to gain empathy with the other side. A nice course in polite civility as essential to communication might be a start. And I would do one on comparative religion if it were my dime. Way too many of us think that our view of the deity is the only viable one.

So there - a glimmer of a way forward. Haidt is working on a new book - I suspect he will have more suggestions in there.

What say you all about this approach? Any better ideas?

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

World Bank Report On World Development - 2015 - Excellent

World Development Report
MIND, SOCIETY, AND BEHAVIOR
By World Bank Group 2015

Introduction
The World Bank has got it!! This report is a marriage of Behavioral Economics, Neuroscience and Culture and Development. And it also understands the need to “reframe” ideas to get them understood.  It talks about all of their research, and has over 100 concrete examples of how this is actually working around the world. It has specific recommendations for all manner of programs. I saw ONE of these in operation In Nicaragua. Kairos presented a lock box to the communities they work with to help them save for a goal. That simple contribution increased their savings rates enormously. There are hundreds of examples like that in this report.

I found the social interaction examples the most informative. I had not realized how much we are driven by our social ties, and how important they are for any kind of organization or effort. I was also surprised at how effective participant control was as opposed to governmental control. Even building the scorecard or measuring tool WITH the participants had a major impact on the results.

This one example is particularly fun:


I highly recommend this report to anyone working on economic development or community organizing  anywhere - developed or developing countries. OR anyone that wonders if Behavioral Economics has a future! The World Bank is using it extensively. It is also a wonderful introduction to modern psychological /social research replete with concrete examples.

This introduction to the report is a LOT longer than I ever intended. It is mostly for my own purposes - I think better when I process information. If you are not yet convinced that you need to read the report, do continue on here. BUT I highly recommend you just go get the thing. It isn’t that long! You can do it - I’m counting on you.

One thing I learned for sure, do not underestimate the power of the daily soap - radio or TV. Several of the stories in here relate to profound economic changes that were encouraged by means of soap opera story lines! It may be that the effect does not last long, but it is a start.

This is a BIG DEAL
I think this report is a very big deal.  I have been reading and thinking about economic development since I had the opportunity to visit Tanzania with my son in 2000. I did a little research then, and found some work by sociologists that seemed to understand what was going on. I wrote a bit about that in this blog entry - with some stories, which I continue to relate to friend and foe alike. You might still enjoy it.

As I continued reading in the field of poverty and economics, I stumbled onto Behavioral Economics through a couple of books recommended by our local newspaper’s economist columnist, and then I got into some neuroscience as it became increasingly clear that we humans are not really rational beings. I thank all the people who recommended these books to me. Here’s a bit of a summary of some of that which I had done some time ago. I put a list of the books at the end of this - in case I forget!

I AM DONE
And now I have found this World Bank report - and I can stop and move on. I can’t believe this has been out there for over a year and I never heard about it. This takes the culture stuff, the economics stuff and the neurological stuff, and wraps it all together in a wonderful synthesis. This report is an excellent review of the scientific literature around human behavior, and how it affects societies and their economic and social development. It is replete with examples and recommendations. If you are at all engaged in development issues around the globe, this should be your bible for the near future. And the amazing thing is that this is NOT rocket science. Many of the things pointed out here are very simple to implement, assuming you understand how humans actually work. A simple change in how something is presented can have a profound effect on how it is perceived and whether it is implemented.

For a better summary of the contents, read this brief “about”:

How To Get Your Copy
A free copy of the report in PDF format is here:
This is the official site for the document, but you cannot download it there. But there are a lot of other resources, such as synopsis, audio versions, background reports, etc.
ALL world bank documents are here:

The Video Introduction and Presentation
There is a video of the official introduction of this report. I love how the speaker introduces it. Advertisers and politicians understand this information well, but economics has been ignoring it. Politicians use this to get elected, but then forget about it. The speakers recount many of the studies in the report that are quite amazing.
Well worth your time: (do not PAUSE the video - doesn’t work, and it may die at some point.)
If you have problems with that video, try this one:
https://youtu.be/1_bjG9zqzQ4

You can find a lot of YouTube videos about this report if you search YouTube for “world development report 2015”. Several in Spanish!!

Findings Summary
We have discovered three basic things about human beings and how they think:
  1. People think automatically, using mental shortcuts most of the time.
  2. People think socially, on the basis of social norms and under social influences.
  3. People think in mental models, drawn from their society and shared history.
There is a pattern to how people think, and advertisers use this all the time. If we understand the pattern, we can better help people to do the things that really promote their well being.

Excerpts
From the Foreword:
Many development economists and practitioners believe that the “irrational” elements of human decision making are inscrutable or that they cancel each other out when large numbers of people interact, as in markets. Yet, we now know this is not the case. Recent research has advanced our understanding of the psychological, social, and cultural influences on decision making and human behavior and has demonstrated that they have a significant impact on development outcomes.

And this is from the Overview:
The title of this Report, Mind, Society, and Behavior, captures the idea that paying attention to how humans think (the processes of mind) and how history and
context shape thinking (the influence of society) can improve the design and implementation of development policies and interventions that target human choice and action (behavior). To put it differently, development policy is due for its own redesign based on careful consideration of human factors.
. . .
The Report draws on findings from many disciplines, including neuroscience, cognitive science, psychology, behavioral economics, sociology, political science, and anthropology. In ongoing research, these findings help explain decisions that individuals make in many aspects of development, including savings, investment, energy consumption, health, and child rearing. The findings also enhance the understanding of how collective behaviors—such as widespread trust or widespread corruption—develop and become entrenched in a society.
. . .

This Report discusses how taking the human factors more completely into account in decision making sheds light on a number of areas: the persistence of poverty, early childhood development, household finance, productivity, health, and climate change. The framework and many examples in the Report show how impediments to people’s ability to process information and the ways societies shape mindsets can be sources of development disadvantage but also can be changed. The three ways of thinking emphasized here apply equally to all human beings. They are not limited to those at higher or lower income levels, or to those at higher or lower educational levels, or to those in high-income or low-income countries. Numerous examples from high -income countries throughout this Report demonstrate the universality of psychological and social influences on decision making. The Report documents the cognitive limitations of people in all walks of life, including World Bank staff (see spotlight 3 and chapter 10 ). Development professionals themselves think automatically, think socially, and think with mental models and, as a result, may misidentify the causes of behavior and overlook potential solutions to development problems. Development organizations could be more effective if practitioners became aware of their own biases and if organizations implemented procedures that mitigate their effects.

The three ways of thinking emphasized here apply equally to all human beings. They are not limited to those at higher or lower income levels, or to those at higher or lower educational levels, or to those in high income or low-income countries. Numerous examples from high-income countries throughout this Report demonstrate the universality of psychological and social influences on decision making.


Mental Models
One of their findings is that “climate” is a mental model - it is something we derive from experience, not reading or learning. It takes an enormous actual change in our experience weather to persuade us rationally that things are not as they were. Page 160 has an extensive piece on the climate change problem.

“Free” is also a mental model - if you want it done, make it FREE. A few pennies will not work.

Social awards work better than financial incentives. People will work harder to get a gold star and higher ranking with their peers, than they will for a 10 cent payment.

Mental ability can change over 10 IQ points, depending on the person’s financial situation, stress level, etc. So when they are offered a decision is very important.

The research and examples of “mental models” is very well done. The history of the slave trade in western Africa left a negative effect in the society’s level of trust. Page 65:
Thus the Atlantic slave trade turned brothers against each other, chiefs against subjects, and judges against defendants. Lower levels of trust in some parts of Africa today are related to the intensity of slave trading centuries ago. Regions that were more susceptible to slave raids due to accidental features of geography have lower levels of trust today—trust toward strangers, friends, relatives, and institutions (Nunn 2008; Nunn and Wantchekon 2011).

This one should also get your attention. P. 65
Working women are viewed more favorably in societies that did not have the plough than in societies that did, and they represent a higher share of the labor force.
Why? Because it required considerably more upper body strength to manage a plow, and it became the male role. The effect persists long after the manual plow is gone.

The profound impact of the level of trust in a society is also pretty amazing. Where trust is weak so is economic development. Weak constraints on the ruling group also correlates very highly with poverty. Think of the “hierarchical” social structure imposed by the Catholic Church in the former Spanish colonies! When leaders are regarded with more respect, they tend to be more corrupt, and the society and the society has less trust and development.

Early Childhood Mental Stimulation - see page 34. Mental stimulation at an early age is essential to the development of both cognitive skills - the automatic and the deliberative. So a reading problem for the children will benefit them throughout life.
Very early childhood stimulation has a large impact on adult success in the labor market, a 20-year study in Jamaica found (Gertler and others 2014). Community health workers made weekly home visits to teach mothers how to play and interact with their children in ways that promote cognitive and emotional development. Children who were randomly selected to participate in the program earned 25 percent more as adults than those in the control group who did not participate in the program—enough to close the earnings gap with a population that was not disadvantaged.

Page 40. They discuss the question as to why the government should intervene to help people, rather than letting them decide for themselves. I have seen this discussion in Thaler’s book on economics, but here is their summary of the problem. There is a MUCH more extensive analysis of this question on page 202. (Sorry for the length of this one.)
First, shaping choices can help people obtain their own goals. Reminders to save or take medicine help people who are otherwise caught up in life achieve objectives that they themselves have set. Commitment contracts, which markets under provide, can reinforce decisions to adopt healthful behaviors. Matching the timing of social transfers to the timing of charges for school enrollment, or making it easier to buy fertilizer at harvest time when cash is at hand, can help overcome the divide between intentions and actions for people who may be forgetful or possess insufficient willpower (that is to say, all of us). Many development policies that operate at the boundary of economics and psychology can be understood in those terms.

Second, individuals’ preferences and immediate aims do not always advance their own interests. Individuals might choose differently, in ways more consistent with their highest aspirations, if they had more time and scope for reflection. Third, socially reinforced practices and mental models can block choices that enhance agency and promote well-being and thus prevent individuals from even conceiving of certain courses of action—as when discrimination can sometimes lead people, understandably, to adopt low aspirations. Governments should act when inadequate engagement, situational framing, and social practices undermine agency and create or perpetuate poverty. Although development actors have legitimate differences on some of these issues and place different weights on individual freedoms and collective goals, widely shared and ratified human rights constitute a guiding principle for addressing these trade-offs.

Not every psychological or social insight calls for more government intervention; some call for less. Because policy makers are themselves subject to cognitive biases, they should search for and rely on sound evidence that their interventions have their intended effects, and allow the public to review and scrutinize their policies and interventions, especially those that aim to shape individual choice. Still, it is not the case that when governments refrain from action, individuals freely and consistently make choices in their own best interest, uninfluenced by anyone else. Any number of interested parties exploit people’s tendency to think automatically, succumb to social pressure, and rely on mental models (Akerlof and Shiller, forthcoming), including moneylenders, advertisers, and elites of all types. In that context, governmental inaction does not necessarily leave space for individual freedom; rather, government inaction may amount to an indifference to the loss of freedom (Sunstein 2014).

Climate Change
Page 160. There is a particularly insightful piece on why climate change opinions are so difficult to change. It has to do with worldview and social networks, much more than scientific information. There is a distinct tendency among “hierarchical individuals” (See Jonathan Haidt on that one) because those folks lean toward tradition, strong leaders, and the like. And tend to reject any new information that runs counter to those things. We typically call that conservatism! So presenting information, cleverly, clearly, or however, may have absolutely no impact on how this subgroup sees reality. In my research, it may even strengthen their existing opinions. For example, some people are less likely to buy the same light bulb for the same price if it is labeled as “environmentally friendly”. Honest.

Positive
I cannot say enough about how well done this report is. It includes the very best research that impacts human development - economics, neuroscience, farming, politics, social media. And it uses examples from developed AND developing countries. We often tend to put down people in developing countries as though there is something wrong with them. We really are all the same, although we are operating in different social, and mental models.
The report is also very well organized. Each topic has an introduction, some details, and a summary, plus references to the actual research. The references also make it appear to be a lot longer than it actually is.
The other good thing is that we have only begun to scratch the surface on how our brains work, and how our social interactions empower and control us. We may actually be able to manage this thing called civilization yet. There is hope.

Poverty and Decisions. The second chapter treatment of the problems facing the poor in simply making any decision is very well done - very empathic. It should be very helpful to anyone working with the poor in any location. One of the things I learned is that my parish’s relationship with a poor community in Nicaragua does a lot more for their mental capacity than it does directly for their financial well being, and the effect is much more enduring. The measured impact of really brief positive affirmation is simply amazing - amazing. See p. 85!
Page 89 Poverty can contribute to a mindset that can make it difficult for people to realize their own potential to take advantage of existing opportunities. It is important to consider how the process of delivering services or targeting poor people could be creating poor frames that further demotivate potential beneficiaries. A good place to start would be the names of programs and identification cards associated with them. “Needy families,” for example, could be replaced with “families in action,” or “poor cards” with “opportunity cards.”


Negative
While they grasp the idea of “mental models”, something I call our “worldview” or simply culture, they do not give it the full weight which it deserves. The models in our head are so powerful that we rarely even see that they are a model or a view. We simply see that this is how life works. The leaders in a specific culture are also suffering under the same mental models, and may be unable to even see them as a problem. And I am not so sure that the mental model of saving or long term perspective can be as easily changed as some of their experiments indicate. But  . . . this is light years beyond every other approach to the problem that I have seen.

There is a bit of repetition in the different portions of the report, citing the same problems or examples several times. BUT . . . it is a decent pedagogical approach.

Original Research
Most of the document is a summary of other research projects around the globe. But they group also initiated some original research in the area of how poverty itself affects decision making. Most of the psychological research utilizes college students in elite universities - they are a little “WEIRD” - western educated, industrialized society, rich, democratic. So the group undertook to replicate some of their work with other populations. It turns out that poor people are quite different from their richer co-citizens, and quite similar across nationalities in how they think about economic opportunities. See page 94.

Effect of Poverty on Childhood Development
This was an eye opener for me. I had read about the effect of poverty on the development of a child’s body and brain, but had not thought about the learning patterns, decision making, and things that affect their ability to make decisions for their entire life. P. 98
They are also likely to have had less opportunity to develop the critical skills—including skills in controlling their impulses, understanding the perspectives of other people, and focusing attention—that are important for engaging effectively with teachers and other children, paying attention in class, completing assignments, and behaving appropriately.
. . .
Finally, the chapter reports evidence that early childhood interventions can mitigate the effects of impoverished environments on children.
. . .
Page 99. Do the wealth gaps in children’s skills narrow over time? The evidence to date indicates they do not.

This chapter alone is well worth your time to read, whatever your role in life. They cite numerous studies that indicate that poverty affects children for their entire lives - partially from nutrition, but also in many other ways that it hinders their abilities. The differences are also culturally based. Different tribes in Kenya have different behaviors toward their infants, and the children’s skills are vastly different as a result. See page 103! SO, a fundamental part of progress here lies in pre-school learning, school teaching methods, and parenting skills. Talk about changing the world! Anti poverty programs have to reach beyond providing nutrition and money! Some cultures believe that talking to infants is inappropriate. How does one change that? One key finding is that it is important to persuade parents and caregivers that the intelligence and abilities of their children are very malleable, and not set in stone. How they are treated in childhood will deteremine their capabilities.


And check out the statistics on “home team advantage” on page 184!